January 31, 2023
PV+Energy Storage Shake Traditional Petrochemical Energy
In 2030, the new energy represented by PV+energy storage will overturn the entire pattern of traditional energy production!
What problems need to be solved to completely subvert traditional energy? Realize low cost PV+low cost energy storage, and the comprehensive cost is lower than that of thermal power. The system cost of PV has been reduced to 3 yuan/W, and the cost of some distributed power stations has been reduced to 2.35 yuan/W. In 2007, the system cost will reach 60 yuan/W, and in 13 years, the cost will be reduced to 5%; Soon, the lithium iron phosphate energy storage system will be reduced to less than 1 yuan/wh, and the charging and discharging times can reach 10000 times.
In 2025, the cost of PV system will be 2 yuan/W, amortized to 25 years of depreciation plus financial cost, 1500 hours/year of power generation, and the cost of kilowatt-hour power will be less than 0.1 yuan/kilowatt-hour power; The cost of the energy storage system is less than 1 yuan/WH, the charging and discharging times are 10000 times, and the storage cost per kilowatt-hour is less than 0.1 yuan per kilowatt-hour, which is depreciated by 15 years,; The cost of PV+energy storage system is 0.2 yuan/kw, and the cost is expected to be reduced to less than 0.15 yuan per kilowatt-hour in 2030, and the cost is far lower than that of fossil energy.
The global electricity consumption will be about 30 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2020. With the rapid development of electrification, the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 50 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2030. Events will probably occur in 2030. PV+energy storage can occupy 30% of the global electricity market, about 15 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity. According to the global power generation conditions, the average annual power generation of 1250 hours can be expected, and the installed capacity of 1GW (1 million kW) is about 1.25 billion kWh.
Then 15 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity, the total installed capacity is 12000 GW, and the installed area on the ground is about 120000 square kilometers. The cost of PV ground system is predicted to be 2 yuan/W in 2025 (1 yuan/W for modules); In 2030, 1.8 yuan/W (0.8 yuan/W for modules), the demand of PV market in the future 10 years, 12000 * 18 -=216 billion yuan, 21.6 trillion yuan.
The global power demand will reach 70 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2040. In 2040, it will occupy 60% of the global power market, about 42 trillion kilowatt-hours. The total installed capacity will be 33600GW. In 2030-2040, 21600GW of photovoltaic installed capacity will be added, and the newly installed land area on the ground will be 210000 square kilometers.
In terms of cost, 1.6 yuan/W (module 0.7 yuan/W) in 2035, 1.5 yuan/W (module 0.6 yuan/W) in 2040, and the overall PV market is 21600 * 15=32.4 trillion yuan, entering a stable development period.
2021-2030 will be the platinum decade of the photovoltaic industry.
Energy Storage Market Ratio
In 2030, 15 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity will require about 60% of energy storage, 9 trillion kilowatt-hours of energy storage, with an average of 1.2 times of charging and discharging per day, and 7.5 trillion kilowatt-hours of energy storage and 25 billion kilowatt-hours of installed capacity of energy storage will be required for 300 days of work, about 25000 GWH.
The energy storage market is calculated at an average price of 0.8 yuan/kwh, with a total market volume of 20 trillion yuan, which is comparable to the photovoltaic market.
In 2040, 42 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity will require about 60% of energy storage and 25.2 trillion kilowatt-hours of energy storage. The average charge and discharge is 1.2 times per day, and the work is calculated as 300 days, which requires 21 trillion kwh of energy storage and 70 billion kwh of installed capacity of energy storage, about 70000GWH; 45000gwh is added.
According to the average price of 0.65 yuan/kwh, the total market volume of the energy storage market is 29.25 trillion, which is equivalent to the volume of the photovoltaic market.
There is no doubt that the next decade will be the most brilliant one for photovoltaic and energy storage, and the opportunity for its birth is immeasurable.
